Listening to the Spring Statement, it’s not hard to see why people are disillusioned with politics. The Chancellor began by saying how wonderful the economy was and how everything was going to plan while the Shadow Chancellor responded with how terrible the economy was and how there was no plan. They traded some insults and borderline truths before other MPs were allowed to ask the Chancellor questions. With a few honourable exceptions these questions can be summarised as either “Chancellor, you are the worst and you should resign”, or “Chancellor, can you expound on how wonderful your policies are”.
A big row over very little
Perhaps it is often like this, but the unedifying performance of it all was underscored by the fact that nothing much was being said. To the approval of almost everyone, the Chancellor has said that there will be only one “fiscal event” (i.e. Budget) each year, to stop the unhelpfully frequent tinkering with taxes and departmental budgets that had become common in recent years. Therefore, as promised, there were no new policy announcements to argue over in the statement.
Instead, the Chancellor gave a speech based on the Office of Budgetary Responsibility’s (OBR’s) update of November’s economic forecast. You could sum this up as: it’s mostly as expected, a gradual improvement in the main economic numbers, a bit more tax revenue from asset prices, a bit more unemployment in the next year or so, but it’s all within the envelope of what was expected. However, the OBR’s forecast was finalised before the US/Israeli attack on Iran. The effect of that on economic forecasts (via energy prices and much else) is vastly greater than anything that has happened since November – so the forecast’s numbers need to be taken with more than a pinch of salt.
Parliament should regularly scrutinise Government spending and the view of independent experts is vital to this. That needs to happen even if events make the forecasts much more uncertain than usual – but what happened inside the chamber didn’t look a lot like effective scrutiny.
The long story of the economy
The long story of the UK economy is one of struggle since the 2008 Banking Crisis. Growth – the primary aim of policy makers – has been slow. The environmental consequences of increasing economic activity have become more obvious while it has not translated into improved standards of living for most.
This long story initially led to increasing income inequality, followed by increasing wealth inequality[1], followed by a spectacular concentration of wealth in the hands of a very few. The story included rising poverty with 7.2m people experiencing food insecurity including 1 in 3 of the UK’s children.
People recognise there is a problem, but the shouting in the Commons chamber feels utterly disconnected from that reality. It seems reminiscent of two people fighting over how heavy a brick to drop on their foot – an important question certainly, but perhaps they should be asking more fundamental questions about their plan’s wisdom.
Outside the chamber the public’s main concern is the cost of living – and even the most generous reading of the economic numbers doesn’t indicate that things will move enough to change how people are feeling. The British public currently has a very low view of politics and thinks politicians put party (and self) before people when making decisions. They also feel that politics is unable to find solutions to the nation’s problems. Watching the debate on the statement in Parliament is unlikely to shift anyone’s opinion on these views either.
“The British People Deserve Better”
The Shadow Chancellor’s response contained the old rhetorical device “the British people deserve better” – and I was left thinking that they do, but perhaps not in the way he meant. The electorate are certainly seeking something better, but it is not entirely clear what they will get.
The two parties that have dominated British politics for a century are polling badly. In the recent byelection they came 3rd and 4th, beaten both by Reform UK and the Greens. This disillusionment with politics and shift from ‘traditional’ parties is not only a UK phenomenon. Similar stories can be seen in countries across the world. Parties of the populist right such as AfD[2] in Germany, and Fidesz in Hungary, and the MAGA[3] wing of the Republican Party in the USA, have grown in popularity with their support concentrated in older and male voters, while younger and female voters have tended to move towards Green and more left-wing parties.
Opportunity and Change
This time of change can feel unsettling and even frightening, especially for those who rightly feel threatened by increasing anti-immigrant and racist rhetoric and policies. However, it also true that structures and institutions that once looked immovable have become less solid, and that presents new opportunities and possibilities for positive change. For Christians who see politics as way of creating a more just world, now is the time to engage.
For churches that want to explore how to be more active in seeking justice through politics, JPIT’s Constituency Action Network (CAN) is one way of pursuing a positive and purposeful relationship with your Member of Parliament, that moves beyond the exchange of predictable and unedifying soundbites.
- * “A politics characterised by listening, kindness and truthfulness” is one of the six hopes that guides JPIT’s work
[1] Importantly this isn’t because people saved more – it is because the things wealthier people owned (property, houses, stocks, shares) rapidly increased in value.
[2] Alternative for Germany (AfD)
[3] Make America Great Again (MAGA)